In his book, Your World Is About To Get a Whole Lot Smaller, Toronto economist Jeff Rubin argues that Americans never pointed their finger at the real cause of the great 2008 recession. We blame fraudulent credit reporting agencies, unscrupulous mortgage companies, “fat cat” bankers and even the federal government. All these and more may have played a role in the economic dip, but Rubin argues that the main cause of the down cycle was the high price of oil. When a barrel of it reached $140 and gasoline topped $4/ gallon in 2008, commerce could barely continue. Businesses couldn’t afford to deliver their goods. Shippers couldn’t afford diesel for international trade. Truckers were clamoring for biodiesel. The vast American middle class cut back on their favorite activity: driving. They stopped driving to grandma’s, let alone Disneyworld. The result: recession.
Was Big Oil manipulating prices? Maybe. But what we see is Big Oil now having to share this dwindling resource with a much larger audience, namely, the rest of the world. In Saudi Arabia, formerly our largest supplier, the expanding middle class is buying and driving automobiles and feels entitled to burn their own oil. We all know that China and India are trying to copy the American dream with a car for everyone. Expanding middle classes in countries around the world are now competing for the oil the US depends on. The result: higher gasoline and diesel prices in the US. Another result, God forbid: drilling in Arctic waters.
The recession dropped oil to $35 a barrel in 2009, but it hasn’t taken long for the price to rebound. After all, the American economy depends on oil for commerce. Economic recovery equals oil consumption equals higher gasoline prices. By December of 2010, oil had already passed $90 a barrel. Rubin predicts that it will keep going up to probably $120 by this summer. Can we have a double dip recession? Of course, we can. Can we do worse than that? What will happen to the economy when oil reaches $150 per barrel?
The recovery from this stubborn downturn is taking longer because more people now understand the cause. We have to break our bond to oil. This means gearing up a brand new energy infrastructure. It means building plants to produce sustainable biofuels and building cars capable of running on these fuels. It means building electric cars and solar panel factories and wind turbine factories to provide clean and sustainable electricity to charge the EVs. It means eliminating the inefficiencies in public transportation and building fast rail systems designed for people and not just freight. Creating the new energy infrastructure is taking time and money, not to mention facing political and regulatory barriers. We are all going to have to suffer some inconveniences and price swings as new fuels make their way into the marketplace. The work force will have to embrace retraining to move employment back to normal levels.
The good news is that new government standards for biofuel production have created new business opportunities. According to an article in Florida Trend, the Energy and Security Act of 2007 means that 270 million gallons of ethanol is needed in Florida every year. There are currently no plants producing here. Scanning Florida newspapers over the last three months, I have found seventeen new companies planning, or already investing in, alternatives to oil. Others may be out there. Some of these will come on line in 2011. Thanks to the determination of Congressman John Mica, Central Florida will soon have a commuter rail system and with Senator Bill Nelson the two successfully pressed for Tampa-Orlando, federal high speed rail money. We citizens shouldn’t be tempted to go back to the old ways either. Auto manufacturers are providing flex-fuel, electric, hybrid and higher efficiency vehicles and we all need to make the effort to stay out of the low-mileage, guzzlers of the past. The time line for success of the transition to sustainable fuels depends on how willingly our society will support these new businesses and vehicles. This is the beginning of the end of the volatile, oil dependency culture.
Sam Kendall
Alternative Fuel Companies
Southeastern Renewable Fuels, Hendry County, sweet sorghum to ethanol; Clean Fuel Lakeland, Polk County, biodiesel; Highlands Envirofuels, Highlands County, sweet sorghum to ethanol; Agri-Source Fuels, Dade City, biodiesel; Vercipia Ethanol, Highlands County, cellulosic ethanol; Vision/FL, Osceola County, sweet sorghum to ethanol; INEOS Bio, Vero Beach, ethanol from waste; Mad Dog Mulching, Tampa, corn ethanol; Algenol Biofuels, Lee County, algae to ethanol; U of F testing facility, Taylor County, cellulosic ethanol; Wise Gas, Fort Lauderdale, compressed natural gas; Coskata, Hendry County, sugar cane to ethanol; Smart Fuels, Lake County, biodiesel; Energy One, Lake Wales, corn ethanol; LS9, California advanced fuel company with demonstration facility in Florida; Alternative Fuels America, Gainesville, biodiesel; Integrated Energy Partners, Santa Rosa County, biodiesel.
Jeff Rubin BLOG
Florida Trend: Profile on Energy in Florida